ALUMIS INC. (ALMS)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q1 2025 revenue of $17.39M driven entirely by license revenue from the Kaken Pharmaceutical collaboration, versus zero product revenue historically; EPS was $(1.82), reflecting ramped R&D and merger costs .
• Versus Wall Street consensus, revenue materially beat ($17.39M vs $1.00M*) while EPS missed (($(1.82) vs $(1.486)*)); five estimates contributed to both revenue and EPS consensus. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
• Management expects standalone R&D expenses to “significantly decrease” in subsequent quarters of 2025, and reiterated standalone cash runway into 2026; post-merger, combined pro forma cash of ~$737M supports runway into 2027 .
• Operational catalysts: ESK-001 Phase 3 psoriasis topline now expected early Q1 2026 (pulled forward from 1H 2026), SLE Phase 2b data in 2026, and A-005 Phase 2 initiation in 2H 2025; Kaken collaboration adds Japan dermatology option and near-term co-development payments .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• License revenue recognition from Kaken ($17.39M) lifted the quarter and showcased early monetization of ESK-001 IP; Alumis received $20.0M upfront in March and expects $20.0M additional near-term co-development payments .
• Pipeline visibility improved: ESK-001 pivotal Phase 3 topline timing refined to early Q1 2026; SLE Phase 2b and A-005 Phase 2 remain on track, with management emphasizing “strong momentum” and execution .
• Shareholder approvals for the ACELYRIN merger obtained, supporting the late-stage portfolio and extended cash runway; management highlighted the merger’s strategic fit and financial flexibility .

What Went Wrong

• Net loss widened to $(99.0)M from $(49.8)M YoY on higher clinical trial and manufacturing spend (ESK-001 ONWARD program and A-005) and transaction-related G&A; R&D was $96.6M vs $42.0M YoY and G&A $22.3M vs $5.6M YoY .
• The 10-Q included going concern language: existing $208.7M in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities (as of 3/31/25) is not sufficient for at least 12 months absent additional capital or merger completion .
• EPS missed consensus due to elevated operating expenses and merger costs; despite other income support, expense growth (+150% YoY total operating expenses) outweighed revenue benefits .

Financial Results

Headline vs Consensus – Q1 2025

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Commentary: Revenue was a significant beat (license revenue from Kaken), while EPS missed on higher R&D and G&A. Bold implications: revenue beat; EPS miss.

Income Statement Comparatives (YoY)

Notes: Q1 2024 EPS reflects pre-IPO share count mechanics. License revenue recognized in Q1 2025 relates to Kaken collaboration.

Trend vs Prior Reported Quarter (available)

Notes: Q4 2024 quarterly granularity not provided in year-end 8-K; Q3 2024 used for prior-quarter trend.

KPIs and Liquidity

Guidance Changes

Note: 10-Q disclosed “substantial doubt” about going concern absent additional capital; implies dependence on merger or financing despite press-release runway language .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

No Q1 2025 earnings call transcript was available in the document catalog. Themes below reflect press releases and 10-Q MD&A.

Management Commentary

• “We’re seeing strong momentum across our development programs… pivotal topline Phase 3 data for our next-generation TYK2 inhibitor ESK-001 in moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis now expected early in the first quarter of 2026… and data from ESK-001’s Phase 2b… in systemic lupus erythematosus expected in 2026.” — Martin Babler, President & CEO .
• On ACELYRIN merger: “We continue to believe that the merger will support the advancement of a differentiated clinical pipeline combined with enhanced financial flexibility… creating value for patients and stockholders.” — Martin Babler .
• On Kaken: collaboration “secures a key potential market for ESK-001… supporting our vision of delivering impactful treatment to patients… worldwide.” — Martin Babler .

Q&A Highlights

No Q1 2025 earnings call transcript was available; Q&A highlights are not accessible. The recap draws on press releases and the 10-Q MD&A .

Estimates Context

• Revenue beat: Actual $17.39M vs consensus $1.00M* (license revenue recognition) — significant positive surprise. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
• EPS miss: Actual $(1.82) vs consensus $(1.486)* — driven by higher R&D ($96.6M) and transaction-related G&A ($22.3M). Values retrieved from S&P Global; expenses from filings .
• Estimate participation: both revenue and EPS had five contributing estimates*. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
• Implication: Street models likely to adjust near-term revenue (to reflect collaboration revenue timing and future co-development payments) while maintaining elevated expense trajectories until R&D moderation materializes.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Collaboration monetization matters: The Kaken deal translated into a material revenue beat and validates ESK-001’s commercial potential in Japan dermatology; additional co-development payments are near-term .
• Expect expense moderation ahead: Management guides standalone R&D to “significantly decrease” in later 2025; watch forthcoming quarters for this trajectory to support EPS stabilization .
• Merger is the liquidity pivot: Despite press-release runway language, the 10-Q’s going concern disclosure underscores dependence on the ACELYRIN close or new financing; merger approval steps are completed with close targeted in Q2 2025 .
• Pipeline timing refined: ESK-001 Phase 3 psoriasis topline pulled forward to early Q1 2026; SLE Phase 2b topline remains 2026; A-005 Phase 2 initiation slated for 2H 2025 — all are stock-moving catalysts .
• Trend context: Operating loss widened YoY on ONWARD and A-005 investments; monitor subsequent quarters for R&D deceleration and merger integration impact on spend profile .
• Trading implications: Near term, the merger closing and any incremental business development/licensing could drive upside; EPS misses tied to spend should abate if R&D guidance executes and collaboration revenues recur.
• Risk checks: Regulatory, clinical execution, and integration risks remain; cash runway and financing access are key sensitivities per 10-Q disclosures .

Citations:

• Q1 2025 press release and 8-K: .
• Q1 2025 10-Q and MD&A: .
• Q4 2024 year-end 8-K press release: .
• Q3 2024 8-K press release and financials: .
• ACELYRIN merger 8-K and investor materials: .